Do Depreciations Really Trigger an Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment? The Case of Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between real exchange rate and foreign direct investment is examined using the Logistic Smooth Transition - Autoregressive Distributed Lag (LST-ARDL) model. Analyzing the effect of real exchange rate changes on foreign direct investment is very crucial for a developing country like Turkey which has a relatively large foreign debt stock. The estimation results show that foreign direct investment inflows to Turkey increase when Turkish Lira appreciates against the US dollar and this effect is especially strong during periods of high investment inflows. Thus, for Turkey to attract productive capital flows rather than unstable short-term portfolio flows it has to maintain a strong currency against the US dollar.