On a new and generalized fractional model for a real cholera outbreak

Abstract

In this paper, a new mathematical model involving the general form of Caputo fractional derivative is studied for a real case of cholera outbreak. Fundamental properties of the new model including the equilibrium points as well as the basic reproduction number are explored. Also, an efficient approximation scheme on the basis of product-integration rule is established to solve the new model. Several kernel functions for the general fractional derivative are tested, and the results are compared with the real data of a cholera outbreak in Yemen. As a consequence, we find a special case in which the aforesaid outbreak is described better, for the corresponding numerical simulations are closer to the real data than the other classical and fractional frameworks. Next, we apply the most realistic model to investigate the effect of vaccination on the considered cholera outbreak. Simulation results show that earlier vaccination could reduce the number of infected individuals effectively, so mortality would have been reduced considerably if the vaccination had been performed earlier.